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The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data

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Abstract

This paper consolidates and interprets the literature on the term structure, as it stands today. Definitions of rates of return, forward rates and holding returns for all time intervals are treated here in a uniform manner and their interrelations, exact or approximate, delineated. The concept of duration is used throughout to simplify mathematical expressions. Continuous compounding is used where possible, to avoid arbitrary distinctions based on compounding assumptions. Both the theoretical and the empirical literature are treated. The attached tables by J. Huston McCulloch give term structure data for U.S. government securities 1946-1987. The tables give discount bond yields, forward rates and par bond yields as defined in the paper. The data relate to the concepts in the paper more precisely than does any previously published data series.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 843, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:843
    Note: CFP 766.
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d08/d0843.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Franck & Zhang, Jiangxingyun, 2017. "Modelling European sovereign bond yields with international portfolio effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 178-200.
    2. Edoardo Rainone, 2015. "Testing information diffusion in the decentralized unsecured market for euro funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1022, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    4. Baskot, Bojan & Orsag, Silvije & Mikerevic, Dejan, 2018. "Yield Curve In Bosnia And Herzegovina: Financial And Macroeconomic Framework," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Edoardo Rainone, 2015. "Price transmission in the unsecured money market," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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