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Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

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Abstract

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Historic Turning Points in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1610, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1610
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d16/d1610.pdf
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    Keywords

    Home prices; Boom; Bubble; Regime change; Stock market; California; Florida;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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