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Financial instability, political crises and contagion

Author

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  • Victor VAUGIRARD

    (Faculty of Social Sciences, University of West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago)

Abstract

This paper studies banking liquidity crises under the assumption that the government may have private benefits in bailing-out a collapsing banking sector for reputation concerns. This political distortion feeds political uncertainty, as citizens may not agree with a bailout decision and overthrow the government. This paper shows that higher political uncertainty increases both fînancial and political instabilities as it enlarges the set of parameters for which bank runs and the dismissal of the government are optimal. Higher political uncertainty may stern from the occurrence of a politico-financial crisis in another similar country. Contagion takes place if citizens update their beliefs on the type of their government. Doing so, they may reinforce their beliers that the government is self-interested and bank bailouts are not socially optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor VAUGIRARD, 2007. "Financial instability, political crises and contagion," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2007041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2007041
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/REL/2007041.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    2. Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2003. "Bank-Firm Relationships and Contagious Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 239-261, April.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    4. Allan Drazen, 2000. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 47-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
    6. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ionescu Cristian, 2012. "Financial Instability And Political Instability," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 154-158, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking liquidity crisis; bailout; political crisis; contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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