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Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Simmons, Peter

    (University of York)

  • Weiserbs, Daniel

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine the characteristics of the quarterly EEC consumer anticipations survey for inflation in the U.K. Using a variant of Pesaran’s approach, we investigate whether the survey data satisfies certain reasonable postulates mainly arising from the assumption of unbiasedness ? We also show that it contains some relevant information not in past rates and therefore that it permits to improve and index of aggregate expected inflation obtained by extrapolative time techniques. With a probabilistic model, we identify such information largely with interest rate changes and with respondents perception of past inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Simmons, Peter & Weiserbs, Daniel, 1990. "Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1990011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1990011
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measurement of perceived and expected inflation on the basis of consumer survey data," IFC Working Papers 5, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
    4. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Yuxiang, Karl & Chen, Zhongchang, 2010. "Monetary policy credibility and inflationary expectation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 487-497, August.
    6. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    8. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
    9. Gärling, Tommy & Gamble, Amelie & Christandl, Fabian, 2013. "Income increases do not compensate for perceived inflation—A price-consumption anomaly," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; inflation;

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