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Irrigation and Conflict: Evidence from Kurdish Separatism in Turkey

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  • Ollie Ballinger

Abstract

This paper leverages a large-scale dam construction project in Southeastern Turkey to test the hypothesis that climactic shocks play a causal role in civil conflict. I use original 5km and 10km gridded datasets on irrigation and Kurdish separatism for the period 1985-2019. Exploiting exogenous topographical variation in the distribution of irrigation schemes, Iand that conflict incidence and insurgent recruitment decline significantly in grid cells following the introduction of irrigation. Yields for all major crops except irrigated cotton are highly sensitive to rainfall, and clashes are more frequent following a poor harvest. However, the effect of irrigation on conflict is strongly mitigated by land inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ollie Ballinger, 2022. "Irrigation and Conflict: Evidence from Kurdish Separatism in Turkey," CSAE Working Paper Series 2022-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2022-07
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:fae08a49-628b-494f-8d93-5d1984b013f9File-Format:Application/pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Irrigation; Conflict; Agriculture; Turkey; Insurgent; PKK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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