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Is Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State Development

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  • Mark Dincecco
  • James Fenske
  • Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato

Abstract

We show that the long-run consequences of historical warfare are different for Sub-Saharan Africa than for the rest of the Old World. We identify the locations of over 1,750 conflicts in Africa, Asia, and Europe from 1400 to 1799. We find that historical warfare predicts greater state capacity today across the Old World, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is no significant correlation between historical warfare and current civil conflicts across the rest of the Old World. However, this correlation is strong and positive in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, while a history of conflict predicts higher per capita GDP for the rest of the Old World, this positive consequence is overturned for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Dincecco & James Fenske & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato, 2014. "Is Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State Development," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-35, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-35
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Farewell to Arms? The Consequences of Warfare in Sub-Sahara Africa
      by missiaia in NEP-HIS blog on 2015-10-07 15:51:57

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    2. Albers, Thilo N.H. & Jerven, Morten & Suesse, Marvin, 2023. "The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a Century of Growth," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 65-101, January.
    3. Metin M. Coşgel & Thomas J. Miceli & Sadullah Yıldırım, 2023. "Religion, rulers, and conflict," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 439-480, September.
    4. Mark Dincecco & James Fenske & Anil Menon & Shivaji Mukherjee, 2022. "Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 981-1010.
    5. Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2017. "States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Shuo, Chen & Ma, Debin, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 505, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Olsson, Ola & Baaz, Maria Eriksson & Martinsson, Peter, 2020. "Fiscal capacity in “post”-conflict states: Evidence from trade on Congo river," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Jamie Bologna Pavlik & Andrew T. Young, 2023. "Historical Representative Assembly Experiences and Constitutionalism Today," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 665-680, December.
    9. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of African Resistance to European Domination: Institutional Mechanism," MPRA Paper 85237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ma, Debin & Chen, Shuo, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CEPR Discussion Papers 15187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Oto-Peralías, Daniel, 2020. "Frontiers, warfare and economic geography: The case of Spain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Artem Kochnev, 2021. "Marching to Good Laws: The Impact of War, Politics, and International Credit on Reforms in Ukraine," wiiw Working Papers 192, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Jamie Bologna Pavlik & Andrew T. Young, 2020. "Medieval European traditions in representation and state capacity today," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 133-186, June.
    14. Dossè Mawussi Djahini‐Afawoubo, 2024. "Understanding tax payment behaviour in the West African Economic and Monetary Union: The role of perceived detection capacity and honesty," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 795-823, March.
    15. Traviss Cassidy & Mark Dincecco & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato, 2015. "The Economic Legacy of Warfare: Evidence from European Regions," Working Papers 6/2015, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jul 2015.
    16. Boxell, Levi & Dalton, John T. & Leung, Tin Cheuk, 2019. "The Slave Trade and Conflict in Africa, 1400-2000," MPRA Paper 94468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2023. "Freedom through taxation: the effect of fiscal capacity on the rule of law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 69-90, August.
    18. Andrea Papadia, 2024. "Fiscal policy under constraints: Fiscal capacity and austerity during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 90-118, February.
    19. Colin O'Reilly & Ryan H. Murphy, 2022. "An Index Measuring State Capacity, 1789–2018," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 713-745, July.
    20. Cantoni, Davide & Mohr, Cathrin & Weigand, Matthias, 2019. "The Rise of Fiscal Capacity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 172, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    21. Witte, Caroline T. & Burger, Martijn J. & Pennings, Enrico, 2020. "When political instability devaluates home-host ties," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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