Are Older Workers Capable of Working Longer?

Working longer is a key to securing a comfortable retirement. However, disabilities can push older workers out of the labor force before their intended retirement date. Until 2010, the trend of rising disability-free life expectancy in the United States suggested increasing capacity for longer working lives, but recent developments may have stalled this progress. This brief, based on a new study, examines trends in: 1) mortality; 2) institutionalization (e.g., incarceration); and 3) work-limiting disabilities. Using data for 2000-2018, it then determines how long individuals can expect to keep working, and how these expectations vary by race and education. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides the background, and the second describes the data and methodology for the analysis. The third section estimates working life expectancy at age 50 by gender. The fourth section repeats the calculations by race and education. The fifth section presents simulations showing the probability that individuals can continue to work to 67 or 70. The final section concludes that the trends suggest cause for concern. While working life expectancy has improved among the more highly educated, lower-educated individuals � with the exception of Black women � have experienced stagnation. This pattern suggests that calls for older workers to delay retirement, which have proved successful over the past couple of decades, may be less fruitful going forward.