Will Women Catch Up to Their Fertility Expectations?

In 2019, the total fertility rate in the United States dipped to 1.71 children per woman, an all-time low and far below the replacement rate of 2.10 children. However, data on Òfertility expectationsÓ suggest no cause for concern. Women in their early 30s today, when first asked about their childbearing expectations in their early 20s, said they intended to have more than two children, similar to previous cohorts. Even considering that ÒcompletedÓ fertility has historically fallen short of expectations by about 0.30 children, women currently in their childbearing years would still end up with around two children. But it turns out that todayÕs 30-year-olds are much farther from their original expectations than previous cohorts. This brief, based on a recent study, explores whether women are likely to catch up to their fertility expectations.1 It examines the factors that drove fertility after age 30 for an older cohort of women, and then applies the results to predict where women in their mid-30s today will end up. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section summarizes the factors that influence fertility expectations and whether they are achieved. The second section discusses the data and methodology for the analysis, which is based on two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The third section presents the results, which suggest that women in their 30s today will have completed fertility of 1.96; and the gap between their expected fertility at ages 20-24 and their completed fertility appears to have increased from 0.30 to 0.48. The fourth section discusses the implications for future fertility in light of a continued decline in expectations among women 20-24 and the impact of COVID-19. The final section concludes that the declining expectations and effects of the pandemic may make 1.96 an upper bound for younger cohorts.