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How Do the Changing Labor Supply Behavior and Marriage Patterns of Women Affect Social Security Replacement Rates?

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  • April Yanyuan Wu
  • Nadia S. Karamcheva
  • Alicia H. Munnell
  • Patrick Purcell

Abstract

This paper seeks to determine the impact of the changing lives of women – increased labor force participation/earnings and reduced marriage rates – on Social Security replacement rates. First, our estimates, based on the Health and Retirement Study and Modeling Income in the Near Term, show that Social Security replacement rates have dropped sharply at both the household- and individual-level, and the decline will continue for future retirees. Our second finding is that this aggregate change masks a complex relationship between replacement rates and the marital status and income levels of individuals. The decline in replacement rates over time is largest for married couples with husbands whose earnings are in the top tercile. Decomposing the reasons for the overall decline shows that increases in the labor supply and earnings of women explain more than one-third of the change. In contrast, the impact of changing marital patterns is relatively small. Much of the remaining explanation rests with the increased Full Retirement Age and changing claiming behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • April Yanyuan Wu & Nadia S. Karamcheva & Alicia H. Munnell & Patrick Purcell, 2013. "How Do the Changing Labor Supply Behavior and Marriage Patterns of Women Affect Social Security Replacement Rates?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-16, Center for Retirement Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2013-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria D. Fitzpatrick, 2014. "Intergovernmental (Dis)incentives, Free-Riding, Teacher Salaries and Teacher Pensions," Upjohn Working Papers 15-220, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Max Groneck & Johanna Wallenius, 2021. "It Sucks to Be Single! Marital Status and Redistribution of Social Security [Female labor supply as insurance against idiosyncratic risk]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 327-371.
    3. Karamcheva, Nadia S. & Sanzenbacher, Geoffrey, 2014. "Bridging the gap in pension participation: how much can universal tax-deferred pension coverage hope to achieve?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 439-459, October.
    4. Matthew S. Rutledge & John E. Lindner, 2016. "Do Late-Career Wages Boost Social Security More For Women Than Men?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2016-13, Center for Retirement Research.
    5. Fitzpatrick, Maria D., 2017. "Pension-spiking, free-riding, and the effects of pension reform on teachers' earnings," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 57-74.
    6. Groneck, Max & Schön, Matthias & Wallenius, Johanna, 2016. "You Better Get Married! Marital Status and Intra-Generational Redistribution of Social Security," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145801, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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