“Leaving, staying or coming back? An analysis of the migration dynamics during the Northern Mali conflict”

This paper uses a unique dataset to analyse the migration dynamics of refugees, returnees and internally displaced people during the Northern Mali conflict. Individuals were interviewed monthly using mobile phones. Our results cast light on the determinants of past and future migration patterns in these groups, their welfare, and household dissolution patterns. In addition to this, we test how employment status, security, and expectations affect the willingness to go back home. The general findings suggest that especially internally displaced people are likely to integrate in the host country and do not show a strong willingness to go back. We find that individuals who were employed were less willing to go back to the North. High educated individuals were less likely to have already returned, while the opposite is true for those whose ethnicity is Songhai, as well as for those who are from Kidal. We also find that higher educated individuals performed better when displaced and in case they decided to return, they were able to find a job more easily.