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Feeling the blues. Moral hazard and debt dilution in Eurobonds before 1914

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  • Esteves, Rui
  • Tuncer, Ali Coskun

Abstract

Debt mutualisation through Eurobonds has been proposed as a solution to the Euro crisis. Although this proposal found some support, it also attracted strong criticisms as it risks raising the spreads for strong countries, diluting legacy debt and promoting moral hazard by weak countries. Because Eurobonds are a new addition to the policy toolkit, there are many untested hypotheses in the literature about the counterfactual behaviour of markets and sovereigns. This paper offers some tests of the issues by drawing from the closest historical parallel?five guaranteed bonds issued in Europe between 1833 and 1913. The empirical evidence suggests that contemporary concerns about fiscal transfers and debt dilution may be overblown, whilst creditors' moral hazard may be as much of a problem as debtors'.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteves, Rui & Tuncer, Ali Coskun, 2014. "Feeling the blues. Moral hazard and debt dilution in Eurobonds before 1914," CEPR Discussion Papers 9860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9860
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    Cited by:

    1. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Coping with disasters: Two centuries of international official lending," Kiel Working Papers 2157, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Esteves Rui Pedro & Tunçer Ali Coşkun, 2016. "Eurobonds Past and Present: A Comparative Review on Debt Mutualization in Europe," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 659-688, November.
    4. Stephanie Collet & Kim Oosterlinck, 2019. "Denouncing Odious Debts," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 205-223, November.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daniel Loureiro & Oscar Afonso & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2024. "Global directed technical change model with fiscal and monetary policies, and public debt," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-57, April.
    7. Jopp, Tobias A., 2017. "How does the public perceive alliances? The Central and Allied Powers in World War I," IBF Paper Series 12-17, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    8. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2016. "Sovereign debt guarantees and default: Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920–1938," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 272-286.
    9. Andreea-Alexandra Maerean & Maja Pedersen & Paul Sharp, 2021. "Sovereign Debt and Supersanctions in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Four Southeast European Countries, 1878-1913," Working Papers 0216, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt dilution; Debt mutualisation; Eurobonds; Moral hazard; Pre-1913;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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