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Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity

Author

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

We analyse the importance of ERM membership for macroeconomic performance by comparing the behaviour of real output growth and inflation of members and non-members of the ERM. Taking the traditional aggregate supply and demand model as the basis for the analysis, we propose and implement an econometric procedure for identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks. The results confirm that the ERM has acted as a vehicle for macroeconomic policy coordination among its members. We also investigate several issues relating to the notion of a `tri-polar' global economic system comprising Germany, Japan and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity," CEPR Discussion Papers 711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:711
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    Cited by:

    1. Pentecôte, J.-S., 2010. "Long-run identifying restrictions on VARs within the AS-AD framework," MPRA Paper 34660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    3. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
    4. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Enlargement and Eurozone: Convergence or Divergence," Working Papers 0504, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    6. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    7. Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2015. "Macroeconomic idiosyncrasies and European monetary unification: A sceptical long run view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 412-423.
    8. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
    9. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2003. "EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 6-2003, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Bok, Tomas, 2001. "The European Monetary Union: were there alternatives to the ECB?: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 775-806, October.
    11. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.
    12. Adolfo Maza, 2006. "Wage flexibility and the EMU: a nonparametric and semiparametric analysis for the Spanish case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 733-736.
    13. Kigabo-Rusuhuzwa, Thomas & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are the East African Community's Countries Ready for a Common Currency?," IZA Discussion Papers 15210, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Hallwood, Paul & Marsh, Ian W. & Scheibe, Jorg, 2006. "An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in five Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, March.
    15. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2011. "An empirical analysis of real exchange rate movements in the euro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1187-1191.
    16. Liam Gallagher, 1999. "A multi-country analysis of the temporary and permanent components of stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 129-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ERM; Macroeconomic Performance; Tri-polarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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