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Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

Author

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  • Ciccone, Antonio
  • Brückner, Markus

Abstract

Are civil wars partly caused by low economic growth? And do democratic institutions attenuate the impact of low growth on the likelihood of civil war? Our approach to answering these questions exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on income growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies. So much so, that we do not find a link between growth and civil war in countries with democratic institutions. Our results therefore point to an interaction between economic and institutional causes of civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccone, Antonio & Brückner, Markus, 2007. "Growth, Democracy, and Civil War," CEPR Discussion Papers 6568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6568
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Markus Brückner, 2010. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 535-550, May.
    3. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization, Violent Social Conflicts, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 5643, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    5. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    6. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    7. Kahouli, Sondès, 2020. "An economic approach to the study of the relationship between housing hazards and health: The case of residential fuel poverty in France," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Soundararajan, Pushparaj, 2013. "A political economy of peace and distributive justice in the era of globalisation," MPRA Paper 44649, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2013.
    9. Brian Chin, 2010. "Income, health, and well-being in rural Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(35), pages 997-1030.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Rainfall; Growth; Civil war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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