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Uncertainty and Company Investment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for UK Firms

Author

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  • Bond, Stephen Roy
  • Van Reenen, John
  • Bloom, Nicholas

Abstract

This Paper investigates the empirical relationship between uncertainty and investment dynamics. This is motivated by the real options literature, which suggests a weaker response of investment to demand shocks at higher levels of uncertainty, as firms place a greater value on the option to wait. Using simulated data we show that this more cautious behaviour can be detected as a smaller impact of sales growth on investment for firms facing higher uncertainty. Using a stock returns volatility measure of uncertainty for a large panel of quoted UK companies, we find a similar interaction effect in our econometrics analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bond, Stephen Roy & Van Reenen, John & Bloom, Nicholas, 2003. "Uncertainty and Company Investment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for UK Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    2. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    3. Fisch, Jan Hendrik, 2008. "Internalization and internationalization under competing real options," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 108-123, June.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 167-201, February.
    5. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2008. "Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2337-2351.
    6. Pernille Parmer & Steinar Strøm & Helge Sandvig Thorsen & Inger Ubbe & Bjørnar Andreas Kvinge, 2018. "Investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf - An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7370, CESifo.
    7. Bianco, Madga & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2009. "Family firms and investments," MPRA Paper 19247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jan Hendrik, Fisch, 2011. "Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries - The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 517-526, October.
    9. NGEPAH, NICHOLAS & EITA , JOEL HINAUNYE & BIYASE , MDUDUZI & Saba, Charles, 2023. "The Effect of Transnet's Capital Expenditure and Investment in Various other Selected Sectors of the South African Economy," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(1), pages 65-90.
    10. Letterie, Wilko A. & Pfann, Gerard A., 2007. "Structural identification of high and low investment regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 797-819, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; Uncertainty; Real options; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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