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China's Great Leap: Forward or Backward? Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster

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  • Li, Wei
  • An, Mark
  • Yang, Dennis

Abstract

The Great Leap Forward (GLF) disaster, characterized by a collapse of grain output, and the associated famine in China between 1959 and 1961, can be attributed to a systemic failure in central planning. Encouraged by unrealistic expectations for agricultural productivity gains from collectivization, the government switched to an accelerated and infeasible timetable for industrialization. Consequently, it diverted massive amounts of agricultural resources to industry and imposed excessive grain procurement burdens on peasants, leaving them with insufficient food to sustain labour productivity. Grain output fell sharply at the onset of these policies and started to recover gradually when the policies were reversed. Official data and our supplementary survey data support the theoretical prediction regarding the dynamic progression of the disaster. They also show that over 80% of the decline in grain output is attributable to the policies of excessive procurement and resource diversion.

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  • Li, Wei & An, Mark & Yang, Dennis, 2001. "China's Great Leap: Forward or Backward? Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster," CEPR Discussion Papers 2824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wenli Cheng & Hui Shi, 2019. "Surviving the Famine Unscathed? An Analysis of the Long‐Term Health Effects of the Great Chinese Famine," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 746-772, October.
    2. Xue Feng Hu & Gordon G. Liu & Maoyong Fan, 2017. "Long‐Term Effects of Famine on Chronic Diseases: Evidence from China's Great Leap Forward Famine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 922-936, July.
    3. Chen, Yuyu & Zhou, Li-An, 2007. "The long-term health and economic consequences of the 1959-1961 famine in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 659-681, July.
    4. Adam Quinones & Richard J. Hunter, Jr., 2017. "China-One Nation, Two Systems: A Management and Entreprenurial Perspective," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 284-299, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Industrialization; Central planning; grain procurement; resource diversion; work capacity; Agricultural crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • P32 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Collectives; Communes; Agricultural Institutions
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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