Settlers and Seekers: Proximity to Immigrants and Individual Voting Behaviour

This study explores the nuanced relationship between immigration and support for anti-immigration parties. Using unique georeferenced individual-level survey data, we show that opening refugee hosting facilities close to voters polarises support for anti-immigration parties: in neighbourhoods with established immigrant communities such support reduces, while it increases in areas with fewer long-term immigrants. These findings are consistent when using official electoral outcomes. We extend the analysis beyond the direct effect of exposure to immigrants by examining the role of voters’ demographics. Our results are mainly driven by male, childless, and low-skilled working-age voters. Moreover, facilities that highlight the presence of short-term immigrants amplify the primary effects. These findings emphasise the importance of considering individual differences to fully understand the complex dynamics at play, particularly the interaction between long- and short-term immigrant presence and the mediating influence of voter demographics.