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Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!

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Listed:
  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Feve, Patrick
  • Guay, Alain

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of Higher Order Belief (HOB) shocks, representing shifts in agents’ beliefs about others’ beliefs, on macroeconomic outcomes. The dynamic causal effects of these shocks are identified by leveraging a combination of a proxy-VAR approach and DSGE-based instruments. Our findings suggest that HOB shocks are indeed a key driver of the business cycle and account for a sizeable share of the observed business cycle volatility. Finally, our identification approach ensures that these shocks are not confounded with other structural/fundamental shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Collard, Fabrice & Feve, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2024. "Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!," CEPR Discussion Papers 19103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19103
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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