IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/19094.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pirozhkova, Ekaterina
  • Ricco, Giovanni
  • Viegi, Nicola

Abstract

Four factors drive the high-frequency impact of monetary policy announcements in South Africa: affecting short-, mid-, and long-term yield curve, as well as country risk. Controlling for information effects, we build IVs to study the transmission of conventional monetary policy, forward guidance, term premia, country risk and information shocks. Our findings reveal textbook contractionary effects of conventional monetary policy. Policy communication, particularly forward guidance, has persistent effects on output and prices. Country risk is a novel and powerful channel of monetary policy communication in emerging markets. By defending its independence, re-stating its inflation target objective, and addressing external shocks, the central bank can mitigate country risk and generate strong expansionary effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Pirozhkova, Ekaterina & Ricco, Giovanni & Viegi, Nicola, 2024. "Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 19094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19094
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach," Staff Working Papers 20-40, Bank of Canada.
    2. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Margaret M. Jacobson & Christian Matthes & Todd B. Walker, 2022. "Inflation Measured Every Day Keeps Adverse Responses Away: Temporal Aggregation and Monetary Policy Transmission," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03554141, HAL.
    6. Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," Research Working Paper RWP 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Matthew V. Gordon & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2024. "The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Treasury Interest Rates," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(01), pages 1-7, January.
    8. Christopher D. Cotton, 2022. "Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects?," Working Papers 22-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Klose, Jens & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Stock market response to Covid-19, containment measures and stabilization policies—The case of Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 29-44.
    11. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    12. Sui-Jade Ho & Ozer Karagedikli, 2021. "Effects of monetary policy communication in emerging market economies: Evidence from Malaysia," CAMA Working Papers 2021-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Edward Nelson, 2021. "The Emergence of Forward Guidance As a Monetary Policy Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    16. Kwok Ping Tsang & Zichao Yang, 2023. "Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissent in FOMC Meetings," Papers 2308.10131, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    17. Guo, Junjie & Guo, Yumei & Miao, Shan & Pang, Xin, 2021. "An investigation of semantic similarity in PBOC’s communication on RMB volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-455.
    18. Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "The crucial role of the five-year Treasury in the US yield curve," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    20. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Working Papers hal-04159848, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Small open economy; Emerging markets; Inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19094. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.