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Financial repression in general equilibrium: The case of the United States, 1948–1974

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  • Kliem, Martin
  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Scheer, Alexander

Abstract

Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent with earlier work, that repression was pervasive but gradually phased out. A model-based counterfactual shows that GDP would have been 5 percent lower, and the debt-to-GDP ratio 20 percentage points higher, had repression not been phased out.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot & Scheer, Alexander, 2024. "Financial repression in general equilibrium: The case of the United States, 1948–1974," CEPR Discussion Papers 18944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18944
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