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Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses

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Listed:
  • Arias, Jonas
  • Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco
  • Waggoner, Daniel

Abstract

There has been a call for caution with the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non-uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only sufficient but also necessary for inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution over the identified set for the vector of impulse responses. In addition, we show how to conduct inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution for the vector of impulse responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Arias, Jonas & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Waggoner, Daniel, 2024. "Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 18836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18836
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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