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Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Sabet, Navid
  • Liebald, Marius
  • Friebel, Guido

Abstract

Can terrorism shift the political landscape of a nation? Exploiting quasi-random variation between successful and failed terror attacks across German municipalities, we find that successful attacks lead to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in state elections. Successful attacks lead to differential increases in turnout which are mainly captured by the AfD; by contrast, the vote share for the ruling party decreases significantly. Using the German SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find that people who reside in municipalities that experience successful attacks identify as more right-wing, prefer the AfD more and the ruling party less, and are more worried about migration and social cohesion. These results hold despite the fact that most attacks are targeted against migrants by right-wing nationalists. The AfD responds to attacks by speaking more about asylum, crime and Islam in its election manifestos at the state level. All other parties shift in the opposite direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabet, Navid & Liebald, Marius & Friebel, Guido, 2022. "Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 17525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17525
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Liebald, Marius, 2023. "Entity matching with similarity encoding: A supervised learning recommendation framework for linking (big) data," SAFE Working Paper Series 398, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      Terrorism; Populism; Turnout; Voter realignment; Political conflict;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
      • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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