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Eclipses and the Memory of Revolutions: Evidence from China

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  • Ponticelli, Jacopo
  • Miao, Meng

Abstract

We study the historical roots of anti-government protests using the experience of China. We document that counties with higher incidence of peasant uprisings against local government officials during the Qing dynasty period (1644-1912) have a higher incidence of anti-government protests in present-day China. To generate plausibly exogenous variation in the incidence of past protests, we exploit differences in the visibility and magnitude of solar eclipses, considered a negative divine signal on the ruler's legitimacy in the Confucian tradition. Differences in historical memories of past protests affect communities' reaction to current grievances against local governments, such as increases in air pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Ponticelli, Jacopo & Miao, Meng, 2022. "Eclipses and the Memory of Revolutions: Evidence from China," CEPR Discussion Papers 16921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16921
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social protests; Persistence; Qing dynasty; Confucianism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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