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Skewness and Time-Varying Second Moments in a Nonlinear Production Network: Theory and Evidence

Author

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  • Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
  • Dew-Becker, Ian
  • Vedolin, Andrea

Abstract

This paper studies asymmetry in economic activity over the business cycle. It develops a tractable multisector model of the economy in which complementarity across inputs causes aggregate activity to be left skewed with countercyclical volatility. We then examine implications of the model regarding the time-series skewness of activity at the sector level, cyclicality of dispersion and skewness across sectors, and the conditional covariances of sector growth rates, finding support for each in the data. The empirical skewness of employment growth, industrial production growth, and stock returns increases with the level of aggregation, which is consistent with the model's implication that it is the nonlinearity in the production structure of the economy that generates the skewness. Other prominent models of asymmetry are not able to simultaneously match the range of empirical facts that the production network model can.

Suggested Citation

  • Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza & Dew-Becker, Ian & Vedolin, Andrea, 2021. "Skewness and Time-Varying Second Moments in a Nonlinear Production Network: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16804
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    Cited by:

    1. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Luo, Bin & Gao, Xiaoli, 2022. "High-dimensional robust approximated M-estimators for mean regression with asymmetric data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2024. "Asset prices in a production network," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Jisheng Yang & Nan Yang, 2023. "Macroeconomic shocks, investment volatility and centrality in global manufacturing network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1433-1451, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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