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Monetary Policy and Bond Prices with Drifting Equilibrium Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Tamoni, Andrea
  • Melone, Alessandro

Abstract

We study drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can originate from term premia or temporary deviations from rational expectations in a behavioral framework. Through the lens of our model, we detect a significant role of the latter in determining the cyclical properties of yields with short maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Favero, Carlo A. & Tamoni, Andrea & Melone, Alessandro, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Bond Prices with Drifting Equilibrium Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16629
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rule; Secular trends; Term structure; Diagnostic expectations; Bond return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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