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Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995

Author

Listed:
  • Estrin, Saul
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time-varying parameters procedures to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of convergence within the communist block, which brings into question the effectiveness of policies to reduce differentials in income per capita across the region under the communists. There is also little evidence of convergence with respect to the West, for the 1970–90 period and when the early years of reform are included (1970–95).

Suggested Citation

  • Estrin, Saul & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995," CEPR Discussion Papers 1616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1616
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Seamus Mcguinness & Maura Sheehan, 1998. "Regional convergence in the UK, 1970-1995," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(10), pages 653-658.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    6. Malinen Tuomas & Nyberg Peter & Koskenkylä Heikki & Berghäll Elina & Mellin Ilkka & Miettinen Sami & Ala-Peijari Jukka & Törnqvist Stefan, 2018. "How to Leave the Eurozone: The Case of Finland," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Ivo Bićanić & Vladimir Gligorov & Ivan Krastev, 2003. "State, Public Goods and Reform," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 29, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Walsh, Patrick Paul & Whelan, Ciara, 2001. "Firm performance and the political economy of corporate governance: survey evidence for Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 85-112, June.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    10. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2001. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," Transition Economics Series 20, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    11. Yutaka Kurihara, 2006. "Is Apec Suitable For Currency Union?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(03), pages 325-334.
    12. Joan Costa Font & Joan Batalla Bejerano, 1998. "Eastern European Countries and the EMU: departure situation and transition strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa98p192, European Regional Science Association.
    13. repec:lic:licosd:14404 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:lic:licosd:10601 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth Models; Kalman Filter; Time Series Test; Transition Economies; Unit Roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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