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Media Sentiment and Currency Reversals

Author

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  • Taylor, Mark
  • Filippou, Ilias
  • Wang, Zigan

Abstract

Analyzing 48 foreign exchange (FX) rates and 1.2 million FX-related news articles over a 35-year period, using digital textual analysis, we find that a currency reversal investment strategy that buys (sells) currencies with low (high) media sentiment offers strong positive and statistically significant returns and Sharpe ratios. The results are robust and the strategy adds value over other currency premia determinants such as carry and momentum. Analysts' forecasts systematically mispredict the reversal strategy. This is the first paper to show that price reversals based on media sentiment are a well-defined feature of the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark & Filippou, Ilias & Wang, Zigan, 2021. "Media Sentiment and Currency Reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 16049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16049
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    Keywords

    Fx media news; Digital text; Currency risk premium; Currency reversals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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