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Whom to Vaccinate First - Some Important Trade-offs

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  • Forslid, Rikard
  • Herzing, Mathias

Abstract

This paper models the current pandemic to analyze vaccination strategies in a setting with three age groups that differ with respect to their fatality rates. The model also accounts for heterogeneity in the transmission rates between and within these age groups. We compare the outcomes in terms of the total number of deceased, the total number of infected, the peak infection rate and the economic consequences. We find that fatalities are almost always minimized by first vaccinating the elderly, except when vaccination is slow and the general transmission rate is relatively low. In this case deaths are minimized by first vaccinating the middle-aged as this group is responsible for substantial spreading of the virus to the elderly. With regard to the other outcome variables it is always best to vaccinate the middle-aged group first. A trade-off may therefore emerge between reducing fatalities on the one hand and lowering the number of infected as well as maximizing the economic gains from vaccinations on the other hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Forslid, Rikard & Herzing, Mathias, 2021. "Whom to Vaccinate First - Some Important Trade-offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Babus, Ana & Das, Sanmay & Lee, SangMok, 2023. "The optimal allocation of Covid-19 vaccines," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. L'aszl'o Czaller & GergH{o} T'oth & Bal'azs Lengyel, 2021. "Vaccine allocation to blue-collar workers," Papers 2104.04639, arXiv.org.
    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 60(4), pages 206-227, December.
    3. Cozzi, Guido, 2022. "Shall we fear a Patent Waiver? Not for Covid-19 Vaccines," MPRA Paper 111990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vaccines; Sir-model; Covid-19;
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