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Myopia, the 'Dividend Puzzle', and Share Prices

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  • Nickell, Stephen
  • Wadhwani, Sushil B

Abstract

The view that the stock market is myopic is commonly expressed in the financial press. However, the existing econometric evidence does not support this view. In this paper, we report econometric evidence suggesting that the market attaches too high a weight to current dividends relative to future dividends. This is consistent with the widely-held belief that the market is myopic. The main reason that we obtain a different result is that we estimate a model that is more general than the standard approach. However, we find no evidence to link this myopic behaviour with increased institutional ownership of equity. Our evidence can also be interpreted as a rejection of the standard efficient markets model, even when we allow for a time-varying discount rate. In addition our test does not depend on the time-series properties of dividends (e.g. we do not require stationarity).

Suggested Citation

  • Nickell, Stephen & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1987. "Myopia, the 'Dividend Puzzle', and Share Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:155
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ajit Singh, 1998. "Pension Reform, the Stock Market, Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Critical Commentary on the World Bank’s Proposals," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 2(8-7), pages 51-78.
    2. Richard Slack & Ioannis Tsalavoutas, 2018. "Integrated reporting decision usefulness: Mainstream equity market views," Accounting Forum, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 184-198, June.
    3. Marianne Rubinstein, 2001. "Gouvernement d’entreprise et innovation," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 63(3), pages 211-229.
    4. Singh, Ajit, 1991. "The stock market and economic development: Should developing countries encourage stock markets?," MPRA Paper 53881, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Dec 1991.
    5. Singh, Ajit, 1994. "Openness and the market friendly approach to development: Learning the right lessons from development experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1811-1823, December.
    6. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Stock market and investment : the governance role of the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1578, The World Bank.
    7. Ajit Singh, 1996. "Emerging Markets, Industrialisation and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Sunanda Sen (ed.), Financial Fragility, Debt and Economic Reforms, chapter 8, pages 153-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Institutional investors, corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 203-229, September.
    9. Singh, Ajit, 1996. "The stockmarket, the financing of corporate growth and Indian industrial development," MPRA Paper 54930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Istemi Demirag, 1995. "Short-term performance pressures: is there a consensus view?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 41-56.
    11. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.

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