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Switching From Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence

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  • Ormazabal, Gaizka
  • López-Espinosa, Germán
  • Sakasai, Yuki

Abstract

This paper provides early evidence on the effect of global regulation mandating a switch from loan loss provisioning (LLP) based on incurred credit losses (ICL) to LLP based on expected credit losses (ECL). Using a sample of systemically important banks from 74 countries, we find that ECL provisions are more predictive of future bank risk than ICL provisions. To corroborate that the switch to ECL provisioning results in more information to assess bank risk, we analyze the market reaction to disclosures on the first-time impact of the accounting change; we find that a higher impact on loan loss allowances elicits lower stock returns, higher changes in CDS spreads, and higher changes in bid-ask spreads. Critically, these patterns are most pronounced when credit conditions deteriorate. Finally, we also find evidence that, as credit conditions worsen, the rule change induces an increase in provisions and a contraction of credit. Our study contributes to the debate on the effect of the ECL model on procyclicality, an especially pressing issue in the context of the current pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ormazabal, Gaizka & López-Espinosa, Germán & Sakasai, Yuki, 2020. "Switching From Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 14803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14803
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected credit losses; Loan loss provision; Bank accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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