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Europe's Golden Age: An Econometric Investigation of Changing Trend Rates of Growth

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  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

This paper examines growth in output per person in 17 OECD countries from the late nineteenth century to 1989 considering the possibility of several breaks in trend. In all cases the unit root hypothesis is rejected in favour of a segmented trend stationary alternative. 1951-73 is shown to be an epoch of exceptionally rapid economic growth in Western Europe and this seems to result both from catch-up and from reconstruction. With one exception, recent income levels in Western Europe are found to be higher than would have been expected on the basis of extrapolating the pre-1914 trend growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 1995. "Europe's Golden Age: An Econometric Investigation of Changing Trend Rates of Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1087
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Teresa Sanchis Llopis & Vicente Esteve Garcia & Antonio Cubel, 2010. "International technology diffusion through patents during the second half of the XXth century," Working Papers. Serie EC 2010-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Lepore, Amedeo, 2012. "L’andamento della spesa per l’intervento straordinario nel Mezzogiorno d’Italia, dalla golden age alla fine del XX secolo. (The trends in the expenditures of the extraordinary intervention in southern," De Computis "Revista Española de Historia de la Contabilidad". De Computis "Spanish Journal of Accounting History"., Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas (AECA). Spanish Accounting and Business Administration Association., issue 16, pages 76-119, June.
    3. Palle Andersen & David Gruen, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policies and Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.),Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Geoffrey R D Underhill & Xiaoke Zhang, 2006. "Norms, Legitimacy, and Global Financial Governance," WEF Working Papers 0013, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Segmented Trend; Unit Root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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