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Random timing of elections and the political business cycle

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  • GINSBURGH, Victor
  • MICHEL, Philippe

Abstract

In his 1975 paper, Nordhaus formally proves that governments whose aim is to be reelected, will generate 'political' business cycles. Empirical results do not confirm this proposition, especially in countries used to early elections. We show that if there is a non-zero probability for elections to be called before the legal term, the political business cycle will be less pronounced, even if no early election actually takes place; moreover, if the normal electoral cycle is interrupted before the legal term, one might observe an inversion of the business cycle, or no cycle at all.
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Suggested Citation

  • GINSBURGH, Victor & MICHEL, Philippe, 1983. "Random timing of elections and the political business cycle," LIDAM Reprints CORE 514, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:514
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00118517
    Note: In : Public Choice, 40, 155-164, 1983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Lucia Rossel Flores & Martijn Huysmans & Joras Ferwerda, 2024. "The political business cycle of tax reforms," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 65-88, July.
    3. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
    4. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    5. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    6. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    7. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2005. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 752-767, April.
    8. Adrian Vermeule, 2011. "Intermittent institutions," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 420-444, November.

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