IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000482/012991.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efectos en el mercado de trabajo como consecuencia de la aplicación de choques específicos en la producción del sector cafetero, 2014-2020

Author

Listed:
  • Óscar Hernán Munoz Goyes
  • Jéssica Natalia Páez Cortés

Abstract

El Modelo Predictivo de Empleo para Colombia (MPEC), desarrollado por la Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT), permite construir diferentes choques en la economía que simulan los efectos que se podrían tener sobre el PIB, el empleo y el desempleo. Este ejercicio se alimenta de la matriz insumo producto, el PIB, la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares y las proyecciones de Fedesarrollo de las principales variables macroeconómicas. Para este ejercicio se simularon dos choques (escenarios extremos) en el sector café: el primero simula una expansión del sector café en el 10 %, que se traduce en un efecto de 1,1 veces sobre las exportaciones; el segundo simula una contracción del sector en el 15 %, y como consecuencia una reducción de las exportaciones en 0,8 veces. Los resultados muestran que un choque (positivo o negativo) en el sector café no incrementa sustancialmente la generación de empleo; sin embargo, un choque negativo sí afecta sustancialmente la tasa de desempleo para el ano 2020, motivo por el cual es importante analizar la pertinencia de políticas enfocadas en el sector café, identificando las condiciones institucionales necesarias para que estas logren ser efectivas. **** The Employment Projection Model for Colombia developed by International Labour Organization (ILO), let to adjust different shocks in the economy for the simulation of its effects on GDP, employment and unemployment level. This exercise is supported by information obtained from Input–Output Matrix, GDP series, Great Integrated Household Survey and Fedesarrollo’s projections for principal macroeconomic variables. For this exercise, two shocks were simulated (extreme scenarios) in coffee sector: the first one simulates growth of coffee sector in 10 % which translates into an effect of 1, 1 times on exports; the second one simulates a contraction of this sector in 15 %, and therefore a reduction on exports in 0, 8 times. The results show that a shock (positive or negative) in the coffee sector does not substantially increase the job creation; however, a negative shock has a significant effect on unemployment rate at 2020. For this reason, it is important to analyze the relevance of policies focused on the coffee sector, identifying the institutional mechanism to achieve the effectiveness of those strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar Hernán Munoz Goyes & Jéssica Natalia Páez Cortés, 2014. "Efectos en el mercado de trabajo como consecuencia de la aplicación de choques específicos en la producción del sector cafetero, 2014-2020," Revista IB 12991, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística - DANE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000482:012991
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dane.gov.co/candane/images/Publicaciones/magazinv_2014/efectos_en_el_mercado_2014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ocampo, José Antonio, 2007. "La macroeconomía de la bonanza económica latinoamericana," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    2. Tamayo, Jorge Andrés & Núñez, Jairo & Medina, Carlos, 2013. "The Unemployment Subsidy Program in Colombia: An Assessment," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4622, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Aarón Garavito A. & Ana María Iregui & María Teresa Ramírez G., 2012. "Inversión Extranjera Directa en Colombia: Evolución reciente y marco normativo," Borradores de Economia 9655, Banco de la Republica.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Magdalena Correo Henao & Daniela Amaya Castro & Mario Andrés Ospina Ramírez & Federico Suárez Ricaurte, 2021. "Pobreza y desigualdad prospectiva 2030. XXI jornadas de derecho constitucional constitucionalismo en ransformación. Prospectiva 2030," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1298.
    3. Luis Hernando Portillo Riascos, 2021. "The Cyclical Position of The Fiscal Policy in Colombia During the Period 1990-2015," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 95, pages 45-83, July-Dece.
    4. Orazio Attanasio & Arlen Guarín & Carlos Medina & Costas Meghir, 2015. "Long Term Impacts of Vouchers for Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence for Colombia," NBER Working Papers 21390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. María Luz Moyano Buitrago & José Mauricio Gil León, 2015. "Efectos de la inversión extranjera directa sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia: evidencia empírica 2000-2010," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, June.
    6. Stephany Griffith-Jones & José Antonio Ocampo, 2009. "Sovereign Wealth Funds : a Developing Country Perspective," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 241-254.
    7. Aarón Garavito & Ana María Iregui & María Teresa Ramírez, 2014. "An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    8. A. Kerem Co?ar & Nezih Guner & James Tybout, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 625-663, March.
    9. Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan & Sarzosa, Miguel, 2012. "Unemployement Protection for Informal Workers in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4542, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Marjorie Chinen & Thomas de Hoop & Lorena Alcázar & María Balarin & Josh Sennett, 2017. "Vocational and business training to improve women's labour market outcomes in low‐ and middle‐income countries: a systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 1-195.
    11. Antonia Asenjo & Verónica Escudero & Hannah Liepmann, 2024. "Why Should we Integrate Income and Employment Support? A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(1), pages 1-29, January.
    12. -, 2016. "Protección y formación: instituciones para mejorar la inserción laboral en América Latina y Asia," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 40660 edited by Cepal, September.
    13. Carlos Andrés BALLESTEROS RUIZ & Javier Andrés ROJAS AGUILERA, 2015. "International shocks and the Colombian economy: A Global VAR Approach," Archivos de Economía 13012, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    14. Rivera-Basques, Luisa & Duarte, Rosa & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio, 2021. "Unequal ecological exchange in the era of global value chains: The case of Latin America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    15. Stephany Griffith Jones & José Antonio Ocampo, 2009. "Les fonds souverains du point de vue des pays en développement," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 259-274.
    16. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Carlos Medina, 2017. "Assessing the Effect of Payroll Taxes on Formal Employment: The Case of the 2012 Tax Reform in Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2017), pages 75-124, November.
    17. Andrés González & Martha López & Norberto Rodríguez & Santiago Téllez, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Oil Sector and non-Ricardian Agents," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, November.
    18. Orazio Attanasio & Arlen Guarín & Carlos Medina & Costas Meghir, 2017. "Vocational Training for Disadvantaged Youth in Colombia: A Long-Term Follow-Up," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 131-143, April.
    19. Adrián Martínez-Osorio & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Iader Giraldo-Salazar & Juan Camilo Santos-Peña, 2023. "Caracterización de la inversión extranjera directa en Colombia (IED): actividades distintas a minas y petróleo," Borradores de Economia 1227, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto & Gómez, Wilman, 2013. "La coyuntura macroeconómica reciente," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 22, pages 9-38, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000482:012991. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/daneeco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.