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Risky Tax Shields and Risky Debt: A Monte Carlo Approach

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  • Ignacio Velez Pareja

Abstract

I present a set of conditions for defining risky debt associated to cash flow and not to accounting earnings. I explain why realization of tax shields for finite cash flows in any period of time t are correlated to Earnings before Interest and Taxes and are not correlated to interest expenses at time t. Using Monte Carlo Simulation I explore the behavior of the four basic cash flows, Earnings before Interest and Taxes plus Other income OI, and interest charges, with eight scenarios applied to a financial planning model. I conclude that the risk of tax shields is Ku, the unlevered cost of equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Velez Pareja, 2010. "Risky Tax Shields and Risky Debt: A Monte Carlo Approach," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 7184, Master Consultores.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000463:007184
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1630056
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weighted Average Cost of Capital; WACC; firm valuation; tax shields; cash flows; Monte Carlo Simulation; discount rate for tax shields; risky debt; risk of tax shields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • J33 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Compensation Packages; Payment Methods

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