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Conceptos basicos de probabilidad

Author

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  • Ignacio Velez-Pareja

Abstract

Este es material de curso para un curso introductorio a la Probabilidad y la Estadistica en Ingenieria y Administracion. Es parte de algunas notas de clases de mis cursos en Espanol sobre esos temas. Cuando se toman decisiones y existen eventos futuros y desconocidos la unica razon por la cual el tomador de decisiones se equivoca es por algun error en su analisis. Esto se conoce como toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre. En esta nota se estudian los conceptos basicos de eventos y probabilidad, junto con la idea de procesos inductivos y deductivos. Se estudian tambien las nociones de independencia estadistica y el Teorema de Bayes. Todos los metodos anteriores son estudiados mediante el uso intensivo de hojas de calculo.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Velez-Pareja, 2009. "Conceptos basicos de probabilidad," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 5668, Master Consultores.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000463:005668
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=885743
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability rules; induction; deduction; random variable; independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    Statistics

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