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Verificación empírica de una regla de política económica sobre el déficit fiscal para Colombia

Author

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  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro

Abstract

Este documento busca derivar una regla de política fiscal y verificarla empíricamente para la economía colombiana. La regla fiscal utiliza el déficit fiscal primario como instrumento en función de la brecha del producto y los desvíos de la tasa inflación. La estimación econométrica es hecha para el período 2000-1 hasta 2012-12 y se encuentra evidencia a favor de la regla propuesta. No obstante, encontramos que las variables utilizadas explican sólo la tercera parte de las variaciones del déficit fiscal. En el período analizado el déficit fiscal primario objetivo fue de 3.3% como porcentaje del producto.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2014. "Verificación empírica de una regla de política económica sobre el déficit fiscal para Colombia," Ensayos de Economía 12312, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000418:012312
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    File URL: http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ede/article/view/46738/48107
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reglas; Política fiscal; Brecha del producto; Inflación.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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