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Efecto causal de la política de seguridad democrática sobre los ataques de grupos subversivos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Perea De Zubiría
  • Nicolás Rivera Garzón

Abstract

El artículo tuvo como objetivo estudiar el efecto de la Política de Seguridad Democrática sobre la dinámica del conflicto armado colombiano para el periodo 1993-2008, más específicamente sobre el total de ataques contra la población civil perpetrados por las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), el Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) y actores armados no identificados (DESC). Para ello, se utilizó el estimador de diferencias en diferencias para múltiples periodos con efectos fijos que compara el impacto de los despliegues de refuerzos policiales y militares sobre los ataques de grupos ilegales en municipios receptores, relativo al cambio ocurrido en municipios no receptores. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la actividad bélica y los desplazamientos forzados se incrementaron en los municipios receptores debido al fortalecimiento de las dinámicas de disputa por el control territorial entre los grupos beligerantes. *** The objective of the article was to study the effect of the Democratic Security Policy on the dynamics of the Colombian armed conflict for the period 1993-2008, more specifically on the total number of attacks against the civilian population by the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) and unidentified armed actors (DESC). To do this, the difference-in-differences estimator for multiple periods with fixed effects is used, which compares the impact of the deployment of police and military reinforcements on the attacks of illegal groups in receiving municipalities, relative to the change that occurred in non-receiving municipalities. The results obtained show that war activity and forced displacement increased in the receiving municipalities due to the strengthening of the dynamics of dispute for territorial control among the belligerent groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Perea De Zubiría & Nicolás Rivera Garzón, 2020. "Efecto causal de la política de seguridad democrática sobre los ataques de grupos subversivos en Colombia," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 18321, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:018321
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/152-efecto-causal-de-la-politica-de-seguridad-democratica-sobre-los-ataques-de-grupos-subversivos-en-colombia
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    seguridad democrática; conflicto armado; narcotráfico; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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