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¿Existe relación alguna entre déficit fiscal e inflación? Antes y después de la independencia del Banco de la República en Colombia

Author

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  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna
  • Paola Andrea Vaca González

Abstract

El presente estudio busca comprobar si la autonomía de la Banca Central en Colombia, adquirida a partir de la Carta Política de 1991, logró controlar de manera adecuada los márgenes de inflación a través de la no monetización de los déficits del Gobierno; o si por el contrario, esto no influyó en la determinación del nivel de precios. Para ello se estiman dos modelos de corrección de errores (VEC) entre el déficit fiscal operativo del Gobierno Nacional Central como porcentaje del PIB y la inflación anual (ambas series integradas de orden 1 [ ( )]), con información anual: el primero de 1963 a 1990, y el segundo, de 1991 a 2010. Mediante el test de Granger se concluye que sí existió una relación de causalidad del déficit fiscal a la inflación antes de la independencia del Banco de la República, pero que después de ésta, no existe correspondencia alguna.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna & Paola Andrea Vaca González, 2013. "¿Existe relación alguna entre déficit fiscal e inflación? Antes y después de la independencia del Banco de la República en Colombia," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 12805, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:012805
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/52-existe-relacion-alguna-entre-deficit-fiscal-e-inflacion-el-antes-y-el-despues-de-la-independencia-del-banco-de-la-republica-en-colombia
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    Cited by:

    1. Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banco de la República; Inflación; Déficit Fiscal; Modelo VEC; Causalidad de Granger.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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