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Crecimiento económico y Conflicto Armado en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio SANTAMARIA SALAMANCA
  • Norberto ROJAS DELGADILLO
  • Gustavo HERNÁNDEZ DIAZ

Abstract

En este estudio se presenta una aproximación de los beneficios económicos, cuantificados en términos de crecimiento económico, como consecuencia de la disminución de factores asociados al conflicto armado en Colombia, como son la tasa de homicidios colectivos, terrorismo, actos subversivos, retenes, extorsiones y secuestros. Se realiza una medición directa de estas variables sobre el crecimiento por medio de un modelo econométrico y una medición indirecta a través de un modelo de simulación. Se encuentra que los beneficios directos alcanzan a ser del orden de 0.97 puntos del PIB, y de forma indirecta de un crecimiento de 0.8% del PIB, entonces la disminución del conflicto armado implicaría un crecimiento de 1.77 puntos porcentuales por encima del PIB que se tendría al seguir con los factores de violencia como se encuentran.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio SANTAMARIA SALAMANCA & Norberto ROJAS DELGADILLO & Gustavo HERNÁNDEZ DIAZ, 2013. "Crecimiento económico y Conflicto Armado en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11201, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:011201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alvis Arrieta & Cristina Hidalgo González & María del Pilar Rodríguez Fernández, 2017. "Conflicto, posconflicto y capacidades de los gobiernos municipales en Colombia, 2002 - 2012," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(2), pages 249-285, December.

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