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Análisis de impacto de la agenda de competitividad sobre el PIB y el empleo: una mirada desde la matriz insumo producto

Author

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  • Jaime Flórez Bolanos

Abstract

ResumenEl presente trabajo tiene por objeto estimar los impactos en el PIB y el empleo ante cambiosen la inversión, exportaciones y gasto del gobierno utilizando como herramienta de análisisla Matriz Insumo Producto. Se realizaron dos experimentos de simulación de cambios en lademanda final los cuales tienen como enfoque el desarrollo desequilibrado de Hirschman(1958) y Currie (1979); este consiste en asignar la inversión en sectores específicos de laeconomía y observar el cambio, teniendo como línea normativa la agenda de competitividaddel gobierno para las regiones; caso especifico Valle del Cauca y las estimaciones arrojadasde los encadenamientos de Rasmussen. Entre los principales hallazgos se destaca quela agenda de competitividad está enfocada en sectores de fuerte arrastre, lo que es compatiblecon las metas planteadas por el gobierno a 2032. Así mismo, se reconoce la importanciadel comercio interregional como elemento potencializador del PIB y el empleo. Se resalta la importancia de contar con un indicador fiable del impacto en el empleo sectorial regionalestimado por entropía cruzada.Palabras Claves: Economía regional, análisis de impacto, simulación, modelo insumo producto,entropía econométrica.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Flórez Bolanos, 2012. "Análisis de impacto de la agenda de competitividad sobre el PIB y el empleo: una mirada desde la matriz insumo producto," Economía, Gestión y Desarrollo 9886, Universidad Javeriana - Cali.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000097:009886
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: regional economics; impact analysis; simulation; input-output model; entropyeconometric.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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