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Viabilidad De La Deuda Externa Colombiana

Author

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  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento analiza la evolución de la deuda externa colombiana con el fin de revisar las condiciones bajo las cuales cabría esperar una estabilización de la relación deuda externa/producto. Esta relación es una de las principales variables que analizan los mercados internacionales para determinar la viabilidad externa de nuestra economía. Utilizando el modelo de Simonsen sobre dinámica de la deuda externa, llegamos a la conclusión que los recientes superávits en la cuenta corriente (no financiera) de la balanza de pagos permiten ser optimistas sobre las posibilidades de estabilizar la relación deuda externa/producto a niveles cercanos al 35%, donde el componente público se estabilizaría a niveles del 25% y el sector privado a niveles del 10% del PIB. Sin embargo, esto supone que el esfuerzo exportador del país continua por buen camino, al tiempo que el gobierno tiene éxito en la reducción del déficit fiscal consolidado por debajo del 2% del PIB en años venideros.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2001. "Viabilidad De La Deuda Externa Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 3758, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003758
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra179.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Clavijo, 2002. "Deuda Pública Cierta y Contingente: El caso de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 205, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda Externa;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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