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El Banco De La República Y El Régimen De Meta De Inflación

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  • Salomón Kalmanovitz

Abstract

El BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA ha adoptado gradualmente el sistema de objetivo de inflación para guiar sus políticas monetaria y cambiaría. Entre 1992 y 1996 la política monetaria tuvo como meta final cierto nivel de inflación y como meta intermedia el agregado M1 (efectivo más cuentas corrientes), que debía reducirse gradualmente para actuar sobre el nivel de precios acordemente. En 1996 comenzaron a adoptarse medidas para que la tasa de interés del mercado interbancario fuera crecientemente influida por las tasas de referencia del BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA, lo que fue ganando terreno como meta operativa de la política monetaria, aunque se introdujo el agregado base monetaria (efectivo más encaje) como meta intermedia. Las desventajas de utilizar los agregados como guías de política son dos: i) no hay una relación estable entre los agregados monetarios y el nivel de precios o esta se pierde con cambios técnicos, tributarios y legales, de tal modo que la autoridad monetaria queda en la incertidumbre cuando esto sucede2; ii) pequeños cambios en los agregados pueden generar amplia volatilidad en las tasas de interés y, por lo tanto, también afectar la estabilidad del producto. Los agregados tienen la ventaja de ofrecer una trayectoria que puede ser seguida por la autoridad monetaria y que le permite desarrollar una estrategia de desinflación bastante cierta. Como se verá, el régimen de inflación objetivo del BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA involucra la vigilancia de un agregado monetario. Las limitaciones de los agregados monetarios son superadas por el régimen de meta de inflación que se fija un derrotero que va cambiando por medio de ajustes graduales de las tasas de interés, en la medida en que los pronósticos de inflación se acercan o se alejan de la meta, al tiempo que la economía se distancia más o menos de su punto de operación de pleno empleo que puede resultar inflacionario. En este artículo expondré los principios del régimen de inflación objetivo, su funcionamiento en una economía cerrada, como cambia este cuando se considera una economía abierta y cuál es el balance que se puede extraer del caso colombiano.

Suggested Citation

  • Salomón Kalmanovitz, 2001. "El Banco De La República Y El Régimen De Meta De Inflación," Borradores de Economia 2460, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002460
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    Cited by:

    1. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
    2. Adolfo Meisel Roca. & Juan David Barón., 2010. "Un análisis histórico de la independencia de la banca central en América Latina: la experiencia colombiana, 1923-2008," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 25, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Gustavo Nicolás Páez, 2015. "Prediciendo decisiones de agentes económicos: ¿Cómo determina el Banco de la República de Colombia la tasa de interés?," Documentos CEDE 12567, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Ingrid Paola Hurtado, Johny Marino Reyes, 2011. "Colombia: El Traspaso Del Tipo De Cambio A Los Precios. Entre Dos Sistemas Monetarios," Revista Isocuanta 12292, Universidad Santo Tomás.

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