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Deuda Pública Cierta Y Contingente: El Caso De Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento examina la dinámica de la deuda pública colombiana, distinguiendo entre la deuda cierta (la del SPNF) y la deuda contingente (la pensional y la correspondiente a las garantías estatales). Los ejercicios tradicionales sobre sostenibilidad de la deuda rara vez incluyen los efectos de la deuda contingente. Nuestros resultados indican que se requiere generar un ahorro primario equivalente al 3% del PIB para estabilizar la relación deuda pública (cierta)/PIB alrededor del 50%. Dado que en la actualidad se estaría generando tan solo un superávit primario del 2% del PIB, es necesario revisar los esquemas de tributación, la eficiencia de los mismos y los programas de gasto público para poder sostener un superávit primario de 3.5% del PIB, incluyendo 0.5% del PIB adicional para enfrentar la carga que representarán los pasivos contingentes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2002. "Deuda Pública Cierta Y Contingente: El Caso De Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2341, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002341
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra206.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alvaro Montenegro, 2004. "Lectura de la estadística fiscal," Documentos de Economía 3137, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Raúl Alberto Chamorro Narváez & Andrés Felipe Urrea Bermúdez, 2016. "Incidencia de las reglas fiscales en la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública territorial en Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 35(Especial ), pages 207-251, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda Pública;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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