IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000092/021048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Worst-Case Higher Moment Risk Measure: Addressing Distributional Shifts and Procyclicality

Author

Listed:
  • Castro-Iragorri, Carlos

    (Facultad de Economía Universidad del Rosario)

  • Gómez, Fabio

    (Facultad de Economía Universidad del Rosario)

  • Quiceno, Nancy

    (Camara de Riesgo Central de Contraparte, CRCC)

Abstract

This paper addresses the inherent procyclicality in widely adopted financial risk measures, such as Expected Shortfall (ES). We propose an innovative approach utilizing the Higher Moment (HM) risk measure, which offers a robust solution to distributional shifts by incorporating adaptive features. Empirical results using historical S&P500 returns indicate that worst-case HM risk measures significantly reduce the underestimation of risk and provide more stable risk assessments throughout the financial cycle compared to traditional ES predictions. These results suggest that HM risk measures represent a viable alternative to regulatory add-ons for stress testing and procyclicality mitigation in financial risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Castro-Iragorri, Carlos & Gómez, Fabio & Quiceno, Nancy, 2024. "Worst-Case Higher Moment Risk Measure: Addressing Distributional Shifts and Procyclicality," Documentos de Trabajo 21048, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:021048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.urosario.edu.co/server/api/core/bitstreams/ade2423c-1485-4420-8a34-6389f1ec4d7e/content
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. PAVLO A. Krokhmal, 2007. "Higher moment coherent risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 373-387.
    3. Matmoura, Yassine & Penev, Spiridon, 2013. "Multistage optimization of option portfolio using higher order coherent risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 190-198.
    4. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    5. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    6. Fabio Bellini & Elena Di Bernardino, 2017. "Risk management with expectiles," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 487-506, May.
    7. Gómez, Fabio & Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei, 2022. "The gradient allocation principle based on the higher moment risk measure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Jose Blanchet & Lin Chen & Xun Yu Zhou, 2022. "Distributionally Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Wasserstein Distances," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6382-6410, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castro-Iragorri, Carlos & Gómez, Fabio & Quiceno, Nancy, 2024. "Worst-case higher moment risk measure: Addressing distributional shifts and procyclicality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    3. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Stulz, Rene M., 2016. "Why Does Idiosyncratic Risk Increase with Market Risk?," Working Paper Series 2016-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang, 2014. "OR Forum—Design of Risk Weights," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1204-1220, December.
    5. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
    6. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Katsutoshi Shimizu & Kim Cuong Ly, 2018. "Did Basel regulations cause a significant procyclicality?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swansea University, School of Management.
    8. Marcelo Righi, 2024. "Robust convex risk measures," Papers 2406.12999, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    9. Adrian, Tobias, 2017. "Risk Management and Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang, 2014. "Design of Risk Weights," Working Papers 14-06, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    11. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Bottero, Margherita, 2020. "Bank lending in uncertain times," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy," EcoMod2017 10430, EcoMod.
    13. Alois Pichler, 2024. "Connection between higher order measures of risk and stochastic dominance," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 1-28, December.
    14. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    16. Liu, Wei & Garrett, Ian, 2023. "Regime-dependent effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on realized volatility in the U.S. stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    18. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    19. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 27-38, August.
    20. Darinka Dentcheva & Spiridon Penev & Andrzej Ruszczyński, 2017. "Statistical estimation of composite risk functionals and risk optimization problems," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 69(4), pages 737-760, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    procyclicality; higher moment risk; stress testing; expected shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000092:021048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.