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Hitos del conflicto y riesgo país

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Castaneda
  • Juan Fernando Vargas

Abstract

Resumen: Este trabajo estudia el efecto que tienen los hitos recientes del conflicto armado en el riesgo país de Colombia. Para este fin se utilizan las permutas de incumplimiento crediticio, más conocidas en el mundo de las finanzas por su nombre y sigla en inglés: Credit Default Swaps, CDS. Estos instrumentos financieros son en la práctica seguros de riesgo soberano y por lo tanto su precio refleja la percepción del mercado acerca de la probabilidad de repudio de la deuda soberana. El trabajo evalúa el componente no explicado del precio del CDS colombiano en los días posteriores a cada hito del conflicto armado, y lo contrasta con el componente no explicado de un precio contrafactual sintético, construido con base en los CDS de otros países de la región.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Castaneda & Juan Fernando Vargas, 2014. "Hitos del conflicto y riesgo país," Documentos de Trabajo 11039, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:011039
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    File URL: http://repository.urosario.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10336/11123/11039.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Conflicto armado; Riesgo soberano; Control Sintético;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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