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Reforma pensional e informalidad laboral en Colombia

Author

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  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento analiza las implicaciones de las reformas pensional y laboral radicadas recientemente por la Administración Petro (2022-2026). Ellas apuntan a establecer un cuasi-monopolio público bajo un sistema de "reparto simple" (Colpensiones), al tiempo que se vuelve más costosa la contratación laboral en horas nocturnas, dominicales y los despidos. Aquí presentamos métricas de informalidad laboral (cercanas al 85% según el PILA), las cuales ilustran la baja probabilidad de lograrse los tiempos mínimos de cotización (sector público) y/o de montos ahorrados (sector privado) requeridos para acceder a una renta vitalicia. También cuantificamos el esfuerzo fiscal requerido para llegar a sustituir por partidas presupuestales los elevados costos no-salariales empresariales, bordeando actualmente el 51% sobre la nómina. Por último, pasamos revista a las alternativas de subsidios permanentes ("renta universal"), temporales (BEPs) y concluimos que la única manera de tenerse soluciones estructuralmente sostenibles, desde la óptica fiscal y laboral, consiste en apuntalar esfuerzos pro-ahorro y formalidad laboral, dejando como complementarios los programas de apoyos asistenciales.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2023. "Reforma pensional e informalidad laboral en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20696, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020696
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/66085/dcede2023-09.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seguridad Social; Política Pública; Pensiones; LatinoAmérica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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