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Una Aproximación A Los Efectos Del Alca Sobre Las Importaciones De Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Rocha
  • Ricardo Perilla
  • Ramiro López

Abstract

Una estimación de los efectos que se derivarían del ALCA con una eventual eliminación del AEC sobre los precios y cantidades de las importaciones de Venezuela y los Estados Unidos. Empleando la econometría de panel para el período 1994-2002 se estimaron modelos competencia a la Bertrand y Cournot para las importaciones de ambos países, en función de los respectivos aranceles, tasas de cambio, costos de roducción y la demanda de Colombia. Los resultados permiten estimar un efecto neto positivo sobre el valor de las importaciones provenientes de ambos países por US 159 millones anuales, es decir, un 3,3%, debido al efecto conjunto de repunte en el valor de las importaciones de los EEUU y al menor valor de las compras a Venezuela. La mayor parte de los efectos corresponden a ajustes en cantidades y se concentran en las importaciones destinadas a la industria como materias primas y bienes de capital, como resultado de las elasticidades estimadas y de la estructura de comercio.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Rocha & Ricardo Perilla & Ramiro López, 2004. "Una Aproximación A Los Efectos Del Alca Sobre Las Importaciones De Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3696, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:003696
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/7879/dcede2004-25.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2005. "Colombia : Country Economic Memorandum, The Foundations for Competitiveness," World Bank Publications - Reports 8807, The World Bank Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ALCA;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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