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Conditional Return Asymmetries in the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

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Abstract

We estimate the time-varying skewness of European banks' stock and sovereign bond returns using quantile methods. We obtain a negative relationship between sovereigns' and banks' return asymmetries, which we relate to the safe haven features of sovereign debt. However, this feature reverses for peripheral European countries (GIIPS). Furthermore, although better capitalized and less risky banks tend to offer less negatively skewed stock returns, these benefits do not reach similarly strong GIIPS-headquartered banks. Finally, we identify a risk premium related to sovereign negative skewness for both large financial and non-financial European firms, which is stronger for firms headquartered in GIIPS.

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  • Julio Gálvez & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Conditional Return Asymmetries in the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," Working Papers wp2018_1813, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2018_1813
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    1. Joel L. Horowitz, 1998. "Bootstrap Methods for Median Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1327-1352, November.
    2. Amanda Gosling & Stephen Machin & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the U.K," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(4), pages 635-666.
    3. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    4. Sandro C. Andrade & Vidhi Chhaochharia, 2018. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1707-1751.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; sovereign bonds; conditional asymmetry; negative risk premium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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