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Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue

Author

Listed:
  • W. D. Walls

    (University of Calgary)

  • A. DeVany

Abstract

Are motion picture audiences influenced by box office reports? Do they `herd' after the leaders and ignore possibly better but less popular films? How important is a big opening to the revenue a film eventually earns? This paper develops a dynamical learning model of motion picture demand that reveals the influence of prior demand on current and future demand. The model shows that audience dynamics are complex and herding is fragile. We show that the path of box office revenue bifurcates into a hit and a non-hit branch four weeks into the run and these paths rapidly diverge thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • W. D. Walls & A. DeVany, "undated". "Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue," Working Papers 2014-58, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 23 Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2014-58
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernanda Gutiérrez-Navratil & Víctor Fernández-Blanco & Luis Orea Sánchez & Juan Prieto Rodríguez, 2017. "Do Movie Majors Really Collude? Indirect Evidence from Release Schedules," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 221(2), pages 9-31, June.
    2. Jordi Mckenzie, 2008. "Bayesian Information Transmission and Stable Distributions: Motion Picture Revenues at the Australian Box Office," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 338-353, September.

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