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Guerre en Ukraine : bouleversements et défis énergétiques en Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Grekou
  • Emmanuel Hache
  • Frédéric Lantz
  • Olivier Massol
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

La guerre en Ukraine provoque de multiples bouleversements, parmi lesquels la scène énergétique occupe une place de premier plan. L’Europe, très fortement dépendante des hydrocarbures russes, est tout particulièrement touchée. Ce Policy Brief analyse les enjeux et défis, pour l’Europe, du conflit russo-ukrainien sur les marchés gazier et pétrolier. Il dresse un panorama complet de la production et des échanges de gaz et de pétrole prévalant avant la guerre, puis met en évidence la dépendance des économies européennes aux hydrocarbures russes dont les impacts économiques se sont manifestés dès le début des hostilités. Il décrit de façon approfondie les différents canaux via lesquels le choc à la hausse des prix des énergies pourrait déclencher une spirale inflationniste à même de faire craindre le retour de la stagflation qui a miné les économies européennes dans les années 1970 et 1980. La devise européenne n’est pas épargnée par ce conflit et sa dépréciation participe à la transmission de la hausse des prix de l’énergie à l’inflation de la zone euro. Plusieurs pistes sont enfin explorées qui pourraient permettre aux pays européens de s’émanciper de la dépendance russe : (i) introduction d’une réelle concurrence sur le marché gazier et prévention d’éventuelles ruptures d’approvisionnement en réglementant les obligations de stockage, (ii) diversification des sources d’approvisionnement en hydrocarbures et (iii) accélération de la transition énergétique en dépit des obstacles de court terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Grekou & Emmanuel Hache & Frédéric Lantz & Olivier Massol & Valérie Mignon, 2022. "Guerre en Ukraine : bouleversements et défis énergétiques en Europe," CEPII Policy Brief 2022-37, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2022-37
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioana-Ancuta Iancu & Patrick Hendrick & Dan Doru Micu & Stefan Dragos Cirstea, 2023. "The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/362698, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenckery, 2022. "European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia : A computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-03887431, HAL.
    3. Ioana Ancuta Iancu & Patrick Hendrick & Dan Doru Micu & Stefan Dragos Cirstea, 2023. "The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Patrice Geoffron, 2022. "Confronting the gas crisis: Can we REPowerUE?," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(1), pages 5-15.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

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