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The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations

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  • Espen Villanger

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of disasters on income mobility by drawing on "natural experiments". While the poor have a much higher probability of remaining poor when entering a crisis compared to normal times, there is also a negative effect in the year after. Richer households seem to be unaffected. A simple bootstrap method is proposed to facilitate statistical inference for mobility matrices. Also, we simulate measurement error to illustrate its magnitude on these matrices. Small errors induce a substantial downward bias of the probability of remaining poor, while comp arisons across states seem more robust, which is promising for impact analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Espen Villanger, 2003. "The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations," CMI Working Papers WP 2003:6, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    • Handle: RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2003-6
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    1. Odd-Helge Fjeldstad & Florida Henjewele & Geoffrey Mwambe & Erasto Ngalewa & Knut Nygaard, 2004. "Local government finances and financial management in Tanzania," CMI Working Papers WP 2004: 7, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    2. World Bank, 2007. "Social Protection in Pakistan : Managing Household Risks and Vulnerability," World Bank Publications - Reports 7660, The World Bank Group.
    3. Odd-Helge Fjeldstad, 2003. "What has trust got to do with it? Non-payment of service charges in local authorities in South Africa," CMI Working Papers WP 2003:12, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    4. Nayoung Lee & Geert Ridder & John Strauss, 2017. "Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 37-55, January.

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